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Posted by Jack Heslin on 14:13:51 05/29/23

History does not repeat, it does not rhyme, but it does inform.

The much-anticipated Ukraine offensive may have already begun, or it will soon begin. The offensive has both military and political objectives. This will be the offensive that the Ukraine government planned to launch in the spring of 2022 before it was preempted by the Russian Special Military Operation.

After years of preparation and, with the help of NATO training and equipment, the very large Ukraine military mass was prepared to launch an offensive against the Donbas region of Ukraine in clear violation of the Minsk Agreements. It was clear to the Russian government that all their attempts to forestall the Ukraine offensive had failed and that the only course of action they could reasonably take to ensure the security of the people of the Donbas region was a military intervention. Anyone with knowledge of the history of Ukraine from 2014 forward knew what was going to happen.

Why would Ukraine have massed the largest military formations on the European continent on the northern borders of the Donbas region if not as preparation for an offensive?

Now, after suffering huge losses to the Russian Special Military Operation, with significant degradation of their combat power, they are being pushed by the Western Elites into a suicidal offensive to meet political objectives dictated by NATO. The degree of hubris by the Western Elites, with their total fixation on destroying the Russian government and specifically the Russian President, is difficult to understand at any level.

Will the Ukraine mothers, wives, and children of the thousands of Ukraine men, about to lose their lives in a lost cause, recognize that they are nothing but pawns in a geopolitical game they have no say in?

In the spring of 1972, the government of North Vietnam launched yet another Big Arrow offensive against South Vietnam. This time, there were no American ground troops to oppose them, only the South Vietnamese military along with a small group of American advisers and large amounts of American firepower from Army, Air Force, Navy, and Marine aircraft. The three-pronged invasion was designed to capture South Vietnamese provinces in I CORPS, near the DMZ, II CORPS, in the Central Highlands, and III CORPS, near the National Capital of Saigon. All three offensives failed to achieve their military objectives and, more importantly, they failed in their political objectives of collapsing the government of South Vietnam.

The enormous losses of men and equipment for the North Vietnamese was self-evident to anyone who was there. I was there, I remember. In the II CORPS battle of Kontum Province the North Vietnamese had more than 16,000 KIA and thousands wounded. The South Vietnamese losses were 4,500 KIA with several thousand wounded.

While the South Vietnamese fought with courage and valor, it was a lost cause because America failed to guarantee the peace outlined in the Paris Peace Accords of 1973.

We are likely to see horrific losses in the upcoming Big Arrow offensive by the Ukraine military, which will not achieve large scale military objectives but may give Western Elites some cover to finally agree to a political settlement.

Any agreement that the Russians agree to will ensure their objectives have been met and they will be the guarantors of the peace unlike the Minsk agreements.

Unintended consequences of this conflict are becoming apparent for all to see. The relative efficacy of weapons systems can only really be determined on the field of battle. In this conflict, some new systems have emerged, and some old systems have proved they are still valuable in battle. The Russian use of old tanks as effective direct fire support especially in an urban environment is an example. Once vaunted, very expensive and technologically advanced systems, have not proven to be as effective in battle as once thought. The comparisons of the relative effectiveness between NATO weapons and Russian weapons are being observed by the world and may have a significant economic impact for the manufactures of these systems. There have been so many weapon systems, introduced by the West as game changers, that have not been. They are too numerous to list. Those retired generals, who should have known better, and who touted the effectiveness of these systems, have seen their reputations sullied forever.

Winners and losers? It is too early to make that call but some things are suggested by the events that have now unfolded. Going forward, the people of the Donbas Region will probably live in peace under the protective umbrella of the Russian military. Sadly, the thousands of families and loved ones of the many fallen soldiers will mourn their losses for many years to come.

This did not have to happen, and more and more people across the globe understand who the perpetrators of this horror show are.

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